The supply disruption at Foxconn’s iPhone factory will definitely affect the shipments of the iPhone 14/Pro series, but it is not clear how much the impact will be.
A note to investors from JPMorgan acknowledged that it was difficult to determine how much the iPhone factory would be affected. However, analysts believe that the sudden and rapid increase in delivery times for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max “suggests a supply shortage” that could last until the end of 2022.
While the biggest impact on iPhone supply will be the holiday quarter — the first quarter of Apple’s 2023 fiscal year — “the full extent of the headwinds to production will only become clear when production can return to normal levels and factories return to full capacity.” .”
IT Home has learned that JPMorgan Chase estimates that iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments fell by 5 million in the December quarter , and other iPhones fell by 3 million in the same period. This equates to an overall shipment forecast of 74 million for the period, down from 82 million.
Meanwhile, iPhone shipments in March are forecast to grow from 56 million to 61 million, with some unmet demand in December expected to flow into the March quarter.
For the full year of 2023, JPMorgan now estimates total iPhone sales will reach 237 million units, compared to 239 million previously. That would imply a 4% year-over-year decline.
In terms of revenue and earnings forecasts, JPMorgan sees Apple on track for $121 billion in revenue and $1.91 in earnings per share in the December quarter, down from $128 billion and $2.14, respectively. That would be a 3% year-over-year decline in revenue and a 9% year-over-year decline in earnings.